Hello everyone. I just thought I would state that Tropical Strorm Ernesto has strengthened to Hurricane status. Overnight, the winds of the system increased to 75 MPH, thus becoming the Atlantic's first Hurricane of the season. It is projected to move in a northwesterly direction making landfall possibly in Haiti as well as a portion of Cuba. Right now, Ernesto is over the warm and moist caribbean water and is continuing to strengthen. However, it should weaken slightly during landfall in Cuba and Haiti.

Now here is the bad news everyone.....I saw that it will make its way into the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday/Thursday. They are saying it could possibly re-strengthen over the warm Gulf water to Category 3 Hurricane. According to the Saffir Simpson Scale, category 3 winds are between 111-130 MPH and cause severe damage. Therefore, people in the eastern Gulf of Mexico need to keep a keen watch over this system and prepare for the possibility of evacuation. Also, an Emergency Preparedness Kit with all the supplies one needs is essential.

Hurricanes are odd because they can weaken or strengthen rapidly in relation to the conditions. Wind shear, cooler waters, or moving over land all are weakening factors. However, once Ernesto moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there could be less wind shear, still very warm water, and it will be moving over water and not land once it gets across Cuba (which I expect will initially severely weaken Ernesto because Cuba is a country with a lot of mountainous terrain which can tear the center of the system apart).

My suggestion is to pay close attention to the Weather Channel because they provide great updates. I wanted to be a meteorologist at one point in life, but now it is just a passion. That's why I wrote this. To let everyone here know if they do live on the Gulf Coast just to make sure they are prepared.....just in case.

I'll provide updates on track, strength, and details as I see them unfold for people here.

i know ur going to think im lying but sadly no i was in the worst storm ive never seen the animals in new orleans like that all the squirrels and rabbits and every thing was going to higher ground,every thingg seemed to be off balence so i toled my mom we have to get out of here i was watching the weather channel so 4 once she believed me we packed food,water,clothes,and my yugioh cards(those sell 4 a lot of money )we brought them just in case we needed money i didnt know it would be that big so i didnt pack that much we got the animals put them in the car then we set of then i remembered something my grandama so we took a detor picked up grandma then we set of the winds started picking up in speed our car rocked we were in part of the storm only a little part but we got out i think we are the luckyest people in the world one thing i dont reget is stoping by the bank picking up all our savings now weve got a a home that will never have a hurricane take it away because now we live in good old tennesse but theres alot more that happend to me on that day but i think we r the luckiest katrina probly did get our home but not us ive been watching whats been on tv and ive been thinking that could have been us stealing from stores to get food and yes it was busy on the road but we were lucky i wish every body could of been that lucky

I'm sorry about Katrina. I know people joke that weather forecasters rarely get it right, but Hurricane prediction is becoming more accurate each year as the National Weather Service and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NWS and NOAA) build up data. That's why I posted my writing on Ernesto here. It is important for those who are in the areas potentially effected pay close attention to what is going on.

yes it is its nice to know now that u dont have to worry about hurricanes

Ughhh, hurricanes!

That picture is kind of funny. Sadly/ironically, Florida might be the state that Ernesto makes landfall in. Depending on the track, it could be in the panhandle or somewhere on the western/Gulf coast of Florida if it keeps its current track.

It's really disturbing, because there are several houses in the process of getting new roofs from Hurricane Wilma's damage last year. We have to have our roof replaced as well, although we haven't received our tile yet.

Last year was one of the most active Tropical Atlantic Hurricane seasons since they starting keeping climatological records. Normally they never get through the alphabet, but last year broke a great deal of records including having to use the Greek Alphabet to continue naming Tropical Storms that formed. I feel terrible for anyone who has had to experience damage to their property because although Hurricanes/Tornadoes are fascinating to study/document, they can be very destructive. So it's this odd like yet dislike thing for meteorologists or people like me who love to learn about weather/why things are how they are. Yet are very much saddened when nature destroys things.

On a sidenote, their is a debate why last years season was so active. Is the earth going through a natural cycle where we happen to be in a highly active period of Tropical activity? Or are their human forces acting upon nature to enhance the amount of tropical activity through things like the Green House Effect? These are all interesting questions that will hopefully be answered through scientifc inquiry.

Update from Weather Channel: (Source: Weather.com)

Hurricane Ernesto

11 AM EDT

Lat: 17.6 N Lon: 73.7 W (Latitude and Longitude)

Winds: 75 MPH (Category 1 Hurricane)

Moving: NW 9 MPH (Northwest)

Pressure: 997 MB

Newest Update from Weather Channel: (Source: Weather.com)

Hurricane Ernesto

2 PM EDT

Lat: 17.8 N Lon: 73.9 W (Latitude and Longitude)

Winds: 75 MPH (Category 1 Hurricane)

Moving: NW 9 MPH (Northwest)

Pressure: 1,002 MB

The latest advisory is basically the same except for the pressure, which has risen slightly. This is a great thing because when the pressure goes up, that means their might be slight weakening going on. It is interacting with land (Haiti), which is why the pressure most likely went up 5 MB. It still maintains Hurricane status this advisory though.

*Their was just an evacuation order posted for all Visitors in the Florida Keys*

I'll continue to update this thread as new advisories are posted.

Newest Update from Weather Channel: (Source: Weather.com)

Tropical Storm Ernesto

5 PM EDT

Lat: 18.0 N Lon: 74.5 W (Latitude and Longitude)

Winds: 60 MPH (Moderate Tropical Storm)

Moving: NW 8 MPH (Northwest)

Pressure: 1,007 MB

This new advisory is a good one. There has been significant weakening of Ernesto over the last few hours. It has been downgraded to Tropical Storm status as pressure continues to increase and the winds are decreasing. Its slow movement is problematic, but due to its close proximity to Cuba, it is unlikely that it will gain Hurricane status again until it possibly emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. This is great news because it is unlikely that it can/will develop into a Category 3 Hurricane.

I still suggest Floridians to keep a close watch on the storm as tropical systems can strengthen rapidly given the right conditions.

The Galveston hurricane of 1900 was a monumental disaster. The whole island was pretty much washed away. A thriving port city was brought to her knees, never to fully recover its days of glory. A city built on sand washed out to sea.

It led to the building of the sea wall, something that had been debated, but not acted upon before that fateful day in September. Living 90 miles north of Galveston, we definitely keep our eyes on anything forming out in the Gulf.

I find weather quite fascinating myself. Someone has to study it to keep us all informed of the potential danger of devastating storms. Acts of nature happen. It seems fruitless to me to try to find some human factor to blame.

There have been a lot of devastating Hurricanes throughout History long before Katrina even formed. I can't stress enough that people who live on the Coast (whether it be Gulf or Atlantic) make sure to keep a keen watch on the developing tropical season. Make sure you listen to the Weather as well as governmental announcements in relation to evacuations. These announcements are key to getting people out of harms way.

I remember looking at the Infra-Red radar picture of Hurricane Katrina last year in disbelief. It was a monster of a storm mostly just because of the sheer enormous area that it covered. Sometimes you can have a small yet intense system. With Katrina, she was a nearly perfect symmetrical Hurricane with rain bands that extended for large distances. That was what allowed for more widespread flooding and loss of property. It was not a question of if New Orleans would get hit by a storm like Katrina, but when. I won't go into the social/political ramifications of it because those are evident, but it is really sad to think more properties and lives could have been spared had things been treated differently.

It makes you wonder, what would happen if another "Katrina" made its way northward towards New York City? Imagine how devastating that would be. Oddly enough, the Northeast is overdue for a Hurricane, so we will see what happens. The climatological peak for the Atlantic Hurricane Season is just around the corner in September. I hope people remain watchful and don't forget how important it is to be prepared if you live in a Hurricane prone area.

From what it looks like, Ernesto will probably make landfall as either a strong Tropical Storm or weak Hurricane later this week. They still are uncertain about the track, but it looks like most likely far south Florida. Moving Northwest from Cuba basically. This is great news that it won't be a strong Hurricane.

Looks like Ernesto is schedule to hit coastal VA areas sometime on Friday afternoon (according to our local weathermen). It would be affecting Richmond around the same time. We don't need the wind, but we sure could use the rain.

You know, you are so right - I remember going away on a weekend retreat last year and Katrina was a "mild" cat 1 and when I came back, I was shocked at how quickly it had gone to cat 5 - these storms can't be taken lightly. Even in Richmond a couple of years ago, we had devesating damage and deaths due to the remains of Hurricane Gaston - it stopped over the city and rained like 15 inches during one day - the streets couldn't drain fast enough and flooding wiped out businesses and many cars in one section of town. We were completely caught off guard.

I'm in Palm Beach County, and it was totally nuts today. First thing I did this morning was go get the car fueled up. I had to wait 35 minutes in line to get gas. People were filling up their cars and gas cans in advance for generators. I wish the stations could have just one line specifically for filling up the gas cans, because it took forever, and I didn't have my AC on in the car, since I was almost out of gas.

Stores were packed and shelves were close to empty of bread, water and batteries, battery-operated fans, etc.

Then I get home and the power went out for like 2 hrs. Hopefully no one gets hit badly with this one.

guys!! its coming where i live i not gonna be one here for aa couple of dayz cause no power :( im soo sad a day w/ out theses boards id will die! LOL im not scared... i been though 3..i just dont want another one!! ...ill tell ya how it turns out ....

oxobritt

Well I hope it's not too severe. You Floridians know how to handle the little ones.

Newest Update from Weather Channel: (Source: Weather.com)

Tropical Storm Ernesto

8 AM EDT

Lat: 22.8 N Lon: 79.3 W (Latitude and Longitude)

Winds: 45 MPH (Weak Tropical Storm)

Moving: NW 14 MPH (Northwest)

Pressure: 1,007 MB

Well, it looks like Ernesto might not re-strengthen into a Hurricane before it makes landfall in Florida. The main thing to watch out for is the rain because even if it is just a Tropical Storm, they can still cause tremendous flooding. Once going through South Florida, it is expected to take a more North-North-easterly track which may mean remerging into the Atlantic and making a secondary landfall in possibly North or South Carolina. Just keep a close watch. I doubt that it will become a hurricane again, but remember, be prepared and listen to the advisories.

HAHAHAHA

As a Floridian I appreciate that :rotfl: :rotfl:

I live in Miami and there's only been 1 inch of rain so far.....Ernesto has fallen apart so it should be nothing more than what we normally get in the summer. :woohoo:

It's good to hear Florida was spared from Ernesto. He is back over water now and strengthening again. He'll probably make landfall in one of the Carolina's later today and then produce tremendous rainfall through the mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley. Keep watch for flooding.

Ernesto did end up dumping a lot of rain over the eastern seaboard, but it was thankfully a Tropical Storm as opposed to a Hurricane at both landfalls. I wish everyone a safe rest of the Tropical season and if need be, I'll update if another potentially threatening Hurricane forms in the Atlantic.